Cottage Prices: The Wild Ride

The data shows a clear cycle of a hot market in 2022, followed by a correction in 2023, and a partial recovery in 2024. The market appears to be stabilizing at a level between the highs of 2022 and the lows of 2023, suggesting a more balanced market condition in 2024. The consistent seasonal patterns across all three years indicate that spring remains the strongest season for waterfront property prices in this market.

1. Overall Price Levels:
• 2022 had the highest overall price levels among the three years.
• 2023 saw a general decrease in prices compared to 2022.
• 2024 shows a slight recovery from 2023 but hasn’t reached 2022 levels.

2. Peak Prices:
• 2022: Peaked in April at $1,150,000
• 2023: Peaked in May at $925,000
• 2024: Peaked in April at $935,000

3. Year-to-Year Comparison:
• January prices: 2022 ($857,000) > 2024 ($850,000) > 2023 ($750,000)
• This indicates a market correction in 2023 followed by a slight recovery in 2024.

4. Market Volatility:
• 2022 shows the highest volatility with prices ranging from $805,000 to $1,150,000.
• 2023 and 2024 show more stable prices with less dramatic fluctuations.

5. Seasonal Patterns:
• All three years show a general trend of prices increasing in spring (March-May) and declining in late summer and fall.
• This pattern is most pronounced in 2022 and less so in 2023 and 2024.

6. Notable Changes:
• The most significant drop occurred from April 2022 ($1,150,000) to February 2023 ($739,000), a decrease of about 36%.
• 2024 shows a more stable market with less month-to-month variation compared to previous years.

7. End-of-Year Trends:
• 2022 ended with a downward trend, reaching $805,000 in December.
• 2023 showed more stability in the latter half of the year, ending at $850,000 in December.
• 2024 data is incomplete but shows a slight downward trend from July to September.

8. Recovery Indicators:
• While 2024 prices are generally higher than 2023, they haven’t reached the peaks seen in 2022, suggesting a partial market recovery.

9. Market Correction:
• The data suggests a significant market correction occurred in late 2022 and early 2023, with prices stabilizing at a lower level in 2023 and 2024 compared to the peaks of 2022.

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